In this insightful report, “Renewables 2023” takes center stage as the IEA’s primary analysis of the renewable energy sector, anchored in the latest policies and market dynamics. The forecast extends to 2028, envisioning the widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies across electricity, transport, and heat. The report not only anticipates future developments but also explores key challenges within the industry, shedding light on obstacles that impede accelerated growth.
At the COP28 climate change conference in Dubai, over 130 national governments, including the European Union, collaboratively committed to tripling the world’s installed renewable energy capacity to a minimum of 11,000 GW by 2030. “Renewables 2023” offers an intricate country-level analysis tracking progress toward achieving this global tripling target. Complementing the report is an accessible online dashboard that maps pertinent data, providing a comprehensive view of renewable energy deployment through 2028.
Beyond its comprehensive market analysis and forecasts, “Renewables 2023” explores key sector developments. This encompasses policy trends steering deployment, solar PV manufacturing, the competitiveness of renewable technologies, energy storage, renewable energy capacity for hydrogen production, the outlook for renewable energy companies, system integration, and a dedicated section on forecasting biogas and biomethane developments.
In 2023, a significant increase in renewable capacity additions occurred, primarily fueled by China’s solar PV market. Global annual renewable capacity additions surged by almost 50%, reaching nearly 510 GW, the fastest growth rate in two decades. China’s acceleration was remarkable, commissioning as much solar PV in 2023 as the entire world did in 2022. Despite record-high increases in Europe, the United States, and Brazil, achieving the COP28 target relies on effective policy implementation.
The report identifies key challenges, including policy uncertainties, insufficient investment in grid infrastructure, administrative barriers, and financing issues. The accelerated case presented in the report demonstrates that addressing these challenges can lead to nearly 21% higher growth in renewables, aligning with the global tripling pledge.
The forecast for 2028 anticipates a transformation in the global power mix, with renewable capacity additions outpacing the cumulative installations of the past century. Wind and solar PV are expected to dominate, achieving significant milestones such as surpassing coal as the largest source of electricity generation in 2025.
China plays a pivotal role, accounting for almost 60% of new global renewable capacity by 2028. However, the US, the EU, India, and Brazil also emerge as growth hotspots for onshore wind and solar PV. The report emphasizes the cost competitiveness of onshore wind and solar PV compared to fossil fuel alternatives.
Despite a decline in solar PV prices and the cost-competitiveness of onshore wind and solar PV, challenges arise from a changing macroeconomic environment. Higher interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and inflation impact renewable energy capacity financing, particularly in advanced economies.
The wind industry faces challenges outside China, with revised forecasts for onshore and offshore wind capacity additions. Offshore wind, in particular, is affected by increased costs, resulting in canceled or postponed projects in the United States and the United Kingdom.
The report also delves into the forecast for hydrogen-based fuel production, biofuel expansion, electric vehicles, and the potential for biofuels and renewable electricity to offset oil demand. The outlook on renewable heat consumption shows growth globally, but stronger policy actions are needed to align with the Paris Agreement goals (Paris Agreement goals).
In summary, as the renewables sector undergoes significant growth, it is crucial to tackle challenges and enact robust policies to meet worldwide targets and alleviate the effects of a shifting economic landscape. The complete “Report 2023” can be accessed for download from the IEA website.
Source text and graphs:
IEA (2023), Renewables 2023, Analysis and forecasts to 2028
IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023.
United Nations, United Nations Climate Change